America is on track to lose more than 700,000 health care workers over the next decade, a gap wide enough to leave millions of patients without a nearby doctor, nurse, or dentist.
Quick Take
- Health policy leader Michellene Davis says the long-predicted health care workforce crisis has now arrived, not just approaching.
- Federal projections show a shortage of over 140,000 physicians by 2038, with primary care and rural areas hit hardest.
- The Conference Board counts more than 700,000 monthly health care job openings against only 306,000 unemployed workers who could fill them.
- Burnout, aging clinicians, training bottlenecks, and heavy student debt are compounding the gap across nursing, dentistry, and behavioral health.
A Shortage Years in the Making
Michellene Davis, president and chief executive of National Medical Fellowships, wrote in TIME that the health care workforce emergency experts warned about for years “is no longer approaching—it is here.” She points to a projected shortage of more than 700,000 health care professionals over the next decade, spanning physicians, registered nurses, and licensed practical nurses.
Davis has made this case before. In an earlier television interview, she described the shortage as something actively getting worse, not holding steady, warning that delays in training and hiring are compounding the problem year after year. Her organization’s own materials describe the physician shortage as “deepening” even as trust in medicine faces new strain nationwide.
The Numbers Behind the Warning
Federal data backs up the broad strokes, even if exact figures shift by year and method. The Health Resources and Services Administration’s 2025 report projects a shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians by 2038, down slightly from the 187,130 figure projected a year earlier for 2037. As of December 2025, roughly 92 million Americans live in an area officially short on primary care.
Other estimates tell a similar story from different angles. The Conference Board reports more than 700,000 health care job openings every month, compared with only 306,000 unemployed workers available to take them. Consulting firm Mercer separately projects a national health care worker deficit topping 100,000 by 2028, driven by demand outpacing supply even before the pandemic hit.
Why Rural and Primary Care Feel It First
Shortages do not land evenly across the country. The Health Resources and Services Administration’s 2025 primary care report finds a projected gap of over 70,000 full-time primary care workers, with rural communities facing the steepest shortfalls. A separate hospital industry scan flags primary care, maternal care, and long-term care as areas where clinical staffing gaps already loom largest for patients today.
Government oversight reviews echo the same pattern inside federal health systems. A 2023 inspector general review found that federal health programs, including military treatment facilities and veterans’ hospitals, reported shortages of medical officers during the pandemic that have not fully resolved. The Government Accountability Office has separately pushed federal health officials to build a coordinated plan addressing these persistent gaps.
Burnout, Debt, and an Aging Workforce
The causes behind the numbers are not mysterious. Federal health workforce analysts point to an aging population needing more care, an aging clinician workforce nearing retirement, provider burnout after years of pandemic strain, and training bottlenecks that limit how fast new doctors and nurses can enter the field. Heavy educational debt discourages many students from pursuing primary care or working in underserved areas at all.
These pressures compound each other rather than acting alone. A worker who burns out leaves a smaller remaining staff covering more patients, pushing those workers toward burnout too. Federal workforce projection tools used by the Health Resources and Services Administration exist specifically to track how these overlapping pressures shift supply and demand over time.
What Happens If the Gap Isn’t Closed
None of this is abstract for patients waiting weeks for a primary care appointment or driving hours to reach a specialist. Fewer available providers mean longer waits, higher costs, and rural hospitals struggling to keep basic services open. Davis frames the stakes plainly: a shortage this large threatens not just convenience but whether Americans in many communities can access care at all.
Fixing it will take more than one policy lever. Expanding medical and nursing school capacity, easing student debt burdens, and improving reimbursement rates for primary care all factor into proposals circulating among federal agencies and industry groups. Common sense says a problem this big, building for a decade, won’t close overnight, but Americans deserve a workforce built to meet it now.
Sources:
time.com, pbs.org, aspe.hhs.gov, bhw.hrsa.gov, files.gao.gov, conference-board.org, oversight.gov, nmfonline.org
